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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a resolute approach regarding Ukraine. After making statements of "serious repercussions" during the summer if Russia's president continued blocking ceasefire discussions, the former president finally imposed considerable restrictions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly hindered Putin's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

But, through his newly presented comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, which was drafted by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has apparently returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Aggression

This initiative would in practice favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Although bold statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality compromise that same sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business background, Trump persists to view the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, like ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's clear goal to weaken it so it stops acts as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although maintaining in place the already separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would force the nation to abandon all of this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting Russia with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a decade of warfare, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defenses severely undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that constitute a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, providing Russian forces a unobstructed way to Kyiv if he subsequently choose to restart the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would facilitate renewed conflict more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the scale of its troops from their existing large number soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal imposes no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "All Nazi doctrine and actions must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent treaties in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a return of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Putin now?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on international protection assurances. While the initiative threatens a "decisive joint defense action" in case Russia resume its invasion, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars range from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, thereby preventing the security presence, presumptively commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from restoring his weakened military, rearming, and reinvading.

World Response

An additional side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any future "significant, intentional, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. But in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's best defense against future hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, including the US administration, to respond through arms to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not